Gold Stock Price Prediction: Arima Time Series Analysis of PT Antam Tbk
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Abstract
Stock investment is a popular choice for securing future financial stability due to its long-term income potential. Shares of PT Antam Tbk (Antam), commonly referred to as gold stocks, exhibit a strong correlation with gold prices, particularly during periods of global economic and geopolitical uncertainty. This study aims to forecast stock prices using the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time-series model, considering the role of gold as a global currency. The data utilized in this study includes stock prices and relevant influencing factors, such as gold prices and global socio-economic conditions. The analysis results indicate that the ARIMA (5, 2, 0) model is the most suitable for forecasting stock prices, as it yields the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value of 0.151031. This model effectively captures significant patterns and trends in the data, making it a reliable tool for predicting future stock prices. The forecast suggests that stock prices are expected to increase over the next 12 months, with an estimated value reaching approximately 1,880.554 by the end of the period.
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